2022 OH Senate Race

2022 US Senate Race

Summary

Two-term Republican Rob Portman was re-elected in 2016 with 58% of the vote. On January 25, 2021, he announced that he would not be running for re-election.

Venture capitalist and author J. D. Vance was nominated in a crowded and competitive Republican primary, defeating USMCR veteran and former Ohio State Treasurer Josh Mandel, state senator Matt Dolan, investment banker Mike Gibbons, and former Ohio Republican Party chair Jane Timken, among others. Vance was endorsed by former President Donald Trump in the primary.

U.S. Representative and 2020 presidential candidate Tim Ryan is the Democratic nominee.

Source: Wikipedia

OnAir Post: 2022 OH Senate Race

News

Ohio Senate Race 2022 Polls: Ryan Enjoys More Woman Support Than Vance
June 28, 2022

Insights and Observations
As per the latest polls, Tim Ryan has an edge over his opponent JD Vance by just 3%. In Ohio, 15% of voters remain undecided.

According to the latest polls, Tim Ryan has huge support from black voters, women, and young voters.
As per the data, 50% of women in Ohio support Tim Ryan and only 31% of women support Vance.
Meanwhile, JD Vance has maintained his support from white voters and mid-age people.
Around 45% of white voters support Vance and 38% support Ryan.

Democrats weigh chances in Ohio Senate race
The Hill, Max Greenwood – June 4, 2022

Democrats are grappling with a major strategic decision: how aggressively to pursue the open Senate seat in Ohio.

On one hand, party leaders and strategists say there’s reason to be hopeful. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), their nominee to succeed retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), is a prolific fundraiser with an adept ability to appeal to the state’s blue-collar voters.

Recent polling shows him virtually deadlocked with his Republican rival J.D. Vance, the author and venture capitalist who carries the endorsement of former President Trump.

But Democrats are also acutely aware of Ohio’s rightward shift in recent years. Trump carried the state twice, in 2016 and 2020, and aside from former President Obama and Sen. Sherrod Brown, no Democrat has won statewide in Ohio since 2006.

About

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[160]Lean RNovember 19, 2021
Inside Elections[161]Solid RJanuary 7, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[162]Likely RNovember 3, 2021
Politico[163]Likely RApril 1, 2022
RCP[164]Lean RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News[165]Likely RMay 12, 2022

Web Links

Tim Ryan

Tim RyanCurrent Position: US Representative for OH 13th District since 2013
Affiliation: Democrat
Candidate: 2022 US Senator
Former Position(s): State Senator from 2001 – 2002

Other Positions:  
Chair, Legislative Branch Subcommittee – House Appropriations Committee
Vice Chair, Defense Subcommittee

Featured Quote: 
We have people scaling the Capitol, hitting Cap. Police officers with lead pipes, & we can’t get bipartisanship. If we’re going to take on China, rebuild the country, reverse climate change, we need two political parties living in reality & the Republican Party ain’t one of them. Speech

For more information, go to this post.

J.D. Vance

J.D. VanceCurrent Position: Venture Capital since 2017
Affiliation: Republican
Candidate: 2022 US Senator

James David Vance (born August 2, 1984) is an American conservative commentator, politician, venture capitalist, and author. He is best known for his memoir Hillbilly Elegy, which attracted significant press attention during the 2016 election.

Vance is the Republican nominee in the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio to succeed retiring Republican U.S. Senator Rob Portman. He will face Democratic nominee Tim Ryan in the November 2022 general election.

For more information, go to this post.

Wikipedia

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with the 2022 Ohio Senate election.

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist JD Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.[1]

Vance won by a 6.1 point margin, which was significantly closer than all other concurrently held elections for statewide offices in Ohio won by Republicans, but fairly consistent with polling for the election.[2][3] Despite his defeat, Ryan flipped four counties carried by Portman in re-election in 2016: Summit, Montgomery, Hamilton, and Lorain, the latter of which Trump won in 2020; however, Vance scored wins in Ryan's home county of Trumbull and the industrial-based Mahoning County that contains much of Youngstown. Both counties were represented by Ryan in his congressional district. Overall, however, this election marked the worst victorious Republican performance in the Class III seat since 1968, and the best Democratic performance since 1992. It is also the closest election since 1992.

Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump and became the only candidate in the seven statewide general election races funded by Trump's PAC to win.[4]

Republican primary

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads.[5] At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience. The debate moderator intervened after it was feared that the two candidates would come to blows.[6] On April 9, Gibbons said that middle-class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting. On April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator JD Vance, who had criticized him in the past.[7][8]

Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump's support, he surged to become the race's frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time.[9] Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020.[10] The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.[11]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Dolan
U.S. governors
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Mike Gibbons
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
Individuals
Organizations
Josh Mandel
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Jane Timken
Executive branch officials
U.S. governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
JD Vance
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Bernie Moreno (withdrawn and endorsed JD Vance)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Matt
Dolan		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Jane
Timken		JD
Vance		Other
[a]		Margin
Real Clear PoliticsApril 28 – May 1, 2022May 2, 202221.5%15.0%22.5%7.0%26.0%8.0%Vance +3.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Matt
Dolan		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Bernie
Moreno		Jane
Timken		Mike
Turner		JD
Vance		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)April 29 – May 1, 20221,081 (LV)± 3.0%22%13%21%–6%–26%4%[c]9%
Emerson CollegeApril 28–29, 2022885 (LV)± 3.2%18%14%22%–7%–24%4%[d]11%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]April 25–26, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%12%12%19%–8%–31%0%17%
Blueprint Polling (D)April 21–24, 2022634 (LV)± 3.9%18%13%12%–7%–17%–33%
Fox NewsApril 20–24, 2022906 (LV)± 3.0%11%13%18%–6%–23%2%[e]25%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]April 18–19, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%9%13%18%–11%–25%<1%23%
The Trafalgar Group (R)April 13–14, 20221,078 (LV)± 3.0%12%14%28%–8%–23%3%[f]13%
Remington Research Group (R)[B]April 11–12, 2022884 (LV)± 3.3%15%17%23%–12%–10%3%20%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]April 3–4, 20222,500 (LV)± 2.0%13%20%16%–15%–10%–26%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]March 30–31, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%9%18%18%–9%–18%–29%
University of AkronFebruary 17 – March 15, 2022– (LV)–5%21%22%–6%–10%4%34%
Fox NewsMarch 2–6, 2022918 (LV)± 3.0%7%22%20%–9%–11%3%[g]24%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 25–26, 2022410 (LV)± 4.8%6%22%15%–6%–8%4%[h]39%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]February 23–24, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%8%18%14%–12%–14%–34%
Cygnal (R)[D]February 8–10, 2022609 (LV)± 4.0%6%23%11%–8%–9%–44%
The Trafalgar Group (R)February 8–10, 20221,085 (LV)± 3.0%10%16%21%–10%–14%3%25%
co/efficient (R)February 6–8, 2022613 (LV)± 4.0%7%20%18%–6%–5%10%[i]34%
February 3, 2022Moreno withdraws from the race
WPA Intelligence (R)[B]January 30 – February 1, 2022514 (LV)± 4.4%5%17%28%6%9%–13%–22%
Cygnal (R)[D]January 28–30, 2022929 (LV)± 3.2%3%16%13%6%8%–10%–45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]January 18–20, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%3%14%15%11%13%–9%1%34%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[E]January 11–13, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%3%10%20%10%18%–10%–24%
WPA Intelligence (R)[F]January 5–6, 2022513 (LV)± 4.4%4%14%26%7%15%–10%8%16%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]January 3, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%4%14%18%9%16%–8%–31%
The Trafalgar Group (R)December 12–15, 20211,053 (LV)± 3.0%5%12%21%2%10%–15%–34%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]November 29, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%4%13%21%3%17%–10%–32%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]November 21–23, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%7%18%2%10%6%10%–45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]October 17–18, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%3%6%19%1%4%7%16%–43%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]September 2021– (LV)–6%12%22%3%11%–9%–37%
WPA Intelligence (R)[B]September 20–23, 2021510 (LV)± 4.3%3%8%37%1%6%–13%6%26%
Remington Research Group (R)[B]September 6–7, 2021980 (LV)± 3.0%2%5%34%2%11%–16%–30%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]August 17–19, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%2%4%19%1%5%5%13%–51%
WPA Intelligence (R)[F]July 27–29, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%3%3%40%1%8%–12%13%20%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]July 20–22, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%1%2%21%2%7%7%12%–48%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]June 15–17, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%2%2%22%1%8%6%4%–55%
Remington Research Group (R)[B]June 1–3, 20211,040 (LV)± 3.0%2%5%35%2%16%–6%–34%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]May 26, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%7%24%1%19%8%4%–35%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]April 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%–1%23%1%14%7%4%–37%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]April 20–22, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%–2%25%2%8%7%6%–51%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]March 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%–2%28%–11%7%2%–37%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]February 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%–2%20%–5%8%––50%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Mike
Gibbons		Josh
Mandel		Bernie
Moreno		Steve
Stivers		Jane
Timken		Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[B]June 1–3, 20211,040 (LV)± 3.0%–45%––22%33%
WPA Intelligence (R)[G]February 1–3, 2021509 (LV)± 4.4%3%38%2%11%6%39%

Results

Results by county:
  Vance
  •   20–30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  Mandel
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  Dolan
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
Republican primary results[23][99]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJD Vance 344,736 32.22%
RepublicanJosh Mandel255,85423.92%
RepublicanMatt Dolan249,23923.30%
RepublicanMike Gibbons124,65311.65%
RepublicanJane Timken62,7795.87%
RepublicanMark Pukita22,6922.12%
RepublicanNeil Patel9,8730.92%
Total votes1,069,826 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Ran in primary

Former CFPB senior advisor Morgan Harper from Columbus

Disqualified

  • Demar Sheffey, treasurer of the Cuyahoga Soil and Water Conservation District[103][23]
  • Rick Taylor[104][23]
  • LaShondra Tinsley, former case manager for Franklin County Jobs and Family Services[23][14]

Declined

Endorsements

Tim Ryan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Morgan
Harper		Traci
Johnson		Tim
Ryan		OtherUndecided
University of AkronFebruary 17 – March 15, 2022– (LV)–18%–43%4%37%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 25–26, 2022313 (LV)± 5.5%4%9%31%5%[j]51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Amy
Acton		Tim
Ryan		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 15–16, 2021787 (LV)± 3.5%37%32%31%

Results

Results by county:
  Ryan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60-70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[23][99]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticTim Ryan 359,941 69.55%
DemocraticMorgan Harper92,34717.84%
DemocraticTraci Johnson65,20912.60%
Total votes517,497 100.0%

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

  • John Cheng (write-in)[144]
  • Matthew R. Esh (write-in)[144]
  • Stephen Faris, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (write-in)[145]
  • Shane Hoffman (write-in)[144]
  • Lashondra Tinsley (write-in)[144]

Disqualified

General election

Ohio had trended Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As such, most analysts expected that this seat would easily remain in Republican hands. However, aggregate polling on the run-up to the election indicated a competitive race, and most outlets considered it to be "lean Republican". In the end, JD Vance held the open seat for the Republicans.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[149]Lean ROctober 4, 2022
Inside Elections[150]Lean ROctober 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[151]Lean RAugust 31, 2022
Politico[152]Lean RSeptember 5, 2022
RCP[153]Lean RSeptember 20, 2022
Fox News[154]Lean RSeptember 20, 2022
DDHQ[155]Likely RNovember 5, 2022
538[156]Likely ROctober 7, 2022
The Economist[157]Likely RNovember 5, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Ohio debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
JD VanceTim Ryan
1Oct. 10, 2022Fox 8Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey		YouTubePP
2Oct. 17, 202221 WFMJLindsay McCoy
Bertram de Souza
Derek Steyer		YouTubePP

Endorsements

JD Vance (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Tim Ryan (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		JD
Vance (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		Undecided
[k]		Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 30 – November 5, 2022November 7, 202251.8%43.8%4.4%Vance +8.0
FiveThirtyEightOctober 17 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202250.9%44.7%4.4%Vance +6.2
270towinNovember 4 – November 7, 2022November 7, 202252.0%44.2%3.8%Vance +7.8
Average51.6%44.2%4.2%Vance +7.4
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		JD
Vance (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		OtherUndecided
CiviqsNovember 4–7, 2022716 (LV)± 4.1%51%46%2%[l]2%
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%52%44%–4%
Targoz Market ResearchNovember 2–6, 2022505 (LV)± 4.3%52%45%3%[m]–
The Trafalgar Group (R)November 3–5, 20221,123 (LV)± 2.9%54%44%–3%
Data for Progress (D)November 2–5, 20221,413 (LV)± 3.0%55%45%––
Cygnal (R)November 1–3, 20221,498 (LV)± 2.5%49%43%–8%
Remington Research Group (R)November 1–2, 20221,125 (LV)± 2.8%48%43%–9%
Emerson CollegeOctober 30 – November 1, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%43%2%[n]4%
53%44%3%[o]–
Cygnal (R)October 29 – November 1, 20221,520 (LV)± 2.5%49%44%–7%
Cygnal (R)October 26–30, 20221,510 (LV)± 2.5%48%44%–8%
Cygnal (R)October 24–28, 20221,776 (LV)± 2.3%48%43%–9%
Cygnal (R)October 22–26, 20221,817 (LV)± 2.3%49%44%–8%
Cygnal (R)October 20–24, 20221,886 (LV)± 2.3%48%44%–8%
Baldwin Wallace UniversityOctober 20–23, 20221,068 (LV)± 3.5%46%50%–4%
Cygnal (R)October 18–22, 20221,547 (LV)± 2.5%47%43%–10%
Marist CollegeOctober 17–20, 20221,141 (RV)± 3.9%46%45%1%[p]8%
942 (LV)± 4.3%47%47%1%[q]5%
Cygnal (R)October 16–20, 20221,540 (LV)± 2.5%47%44%–9%
Siena CollegeOctober 14–19, 2022644 (LV)± 5.1%46%46%3%[r]6%
Cygnal (R)October 14–18, 20221,438 (LV)± 2.6%47%43%–10%
Ohio Northern University/LucidOctober 11–15, 2022668 (LV)± 3.8%41%43%1%[s]15%
Suffolk UniversityOctober 11–15, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%47%45%1%[t]6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 10–12, 20221,081 (LV)± 2.9%47%44%–9%
Data for Progress (D)October 7–12, 20221,016 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%–5%
Cygnal (R)[I]October 6–8, 2022640 (LV)–46%44%–9%
Emerson CollegeOctober 6–7, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%45%1%[u]9%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J]October 2–3, 2022950 (RV)± 3.5%35%43%–22%
528 (LV)38%49%–14%
Siena CollegeSeptember 18–22, 2022642 (LV)± 4.4%43%46%2%[v]9%
Baldwin Wallace UniversitySeptember 12–15, 2022855 (LV)± 4.1%45%48%–7%
Marist CollegeSeptember 12–15, 20221,200 (RV)± 3.6%46%45%–9%
1,009 (LV)± 3.9%48%47%–5%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 10–13, 20221000 (LV)± 3.0%44%40%3%13%
CiviqsSeptember 10–13, 2022780 (LV)± 4%48%45%3%4%
Fallon ResearchSeptember 6–11, 2022600 (RV)± 4.3%43%46%1%10%
Suffolk UniversitySeptember 5–7, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%46%47%1%6%
Echelon InsightsAugust 31 – September 7, 2022831 (LV)± 4.3%39%45%–15%
Impact Research (D)[K]August 17–23, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%–3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 16–19, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%–6%
Emerson CollegeAugust 15–16, 2022925 (LV)± 3.2%45%42%4%10%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J]August 1–3, 20221,180 (A)± 2.9%32%42%–26%
974 (RV)± 3.1%33%44%–23%
516 (LV)± 4.3%38%49%–12%
Impact Research (D)[K]July 21–28, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%45%48%–7%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[L]July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%38%44%3%15%
Grow Progress (D)[M]July 5–10, 20222,032 (RV)± 3.0%41%46%–13%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J]July 1–3, 20221,199 (A)± 2.8%36%41%–23%
989 (RV)± 3.1%37%44%–20%
528 (LV)± 4.3%43%46%–11%
Impact Research (D)[K]June 27–30, 2022816 (LV)± 3.4%46%48%–6%
Grow Progress (D)[M]May 30 – June 3, 20222,018 (RV)± 3.0%41%44%–15%
Suffolk UniversityMay 22–24, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%39%2%17%
Momentive (D)[J]May 13, 20221,174 (A)± 2.9%37%37%–25%
989 (RV)± 3.1%40%39%–21%
528 (LV)± 4.3%48%43%–9%
Grow Progress (D)[M]April 25–29, 20222,014 (RV)± 2.5%41%43%–15%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%33%36%3%24%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%36%37%3%23%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%39%37%–24%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Josh
Mandel (R)		Amy
Acton (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%41%42%17%
Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Josh
Mandel (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%38%36%4%18%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%41%37%4%17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%42%38%–20%
Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Jane
Timken (R)		Amy
Acton (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%40%40%20%
Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Jane
Timken (R)		Tim
Ryan (D)		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%33%36%4%23%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%36%38%4%22%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%41%38%–21%
JD Vance vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		JD
Vance (R)		Amy
Acton (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%38%40%22%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio[99]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanJD Vance 2,192,114 53.04% −4.99%
DemocraticTim Ryan1,939,48946.92%+9.76%
Write-in1,7390.04%N/A
Total votes4,133,342 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By county

By county
CountyJD Vance
Republican		Tim Ryan
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams6,74977.34%1,97622.64%10.01%4,77354.70%8,726
Allen23,22971.02%9,42828.83%490.15%13,80142.19%32,706
Ashland13,36672.61%5,03427.35%90.05%8,33245.26%18,409
Ashtabula18,27759.14%12,56140.64%690.22%5,71618.50%30,907
Athens7,48239.18%11,57860.62%380.20%-4,096-21.44%19,098
Auglaize15,02280.37%3,64119.48%280.15%11,38160.89%18,691
Belmont15,16967.25%7,35632.61%310.14%7,81334.64%22,556
Brown10,83276.62%3,30023.34%50.04%7,53253.28%14,137
Butler79,24061.88%48,77738.09%350.03%30,46323.79%128,052
Carroll7,37272.70%2,74327.05%250.25%4,62945.65%10,140
Champaign10,25371.03%4,09528.37%870.60%6,15842.66%14,435
Clark27,13161.10%17,14138.60%1300.30%9,99022.50%44,402
Clermont52,88865.97%27,08433.78%1940.24%25,80432.19%80,166
Clinton10,51574.59%3,56225.27%210.15%6,95349.32%14,098
Columbiana24,82969.77%10,70530.08%510.14%14,12439.69%35,585
Coshocton8,02170.97%3,25528.80%260.23%4,76642.17%11,302
Crawford10,85573.18%3,94826.61%310.21%6,90746.57%14,834
Cuyahoga131,42732.12%277,03967.70%7500.18%-145,612-35.58%409,216
Darke15,97780.76%3,77319.07%330.17%12,20461.69%19,783
Defiance8,82166.03%4,51333.78%250.19%4,30832.25%13,359
Delaware52,54053.13%46,31946.84%270.03%6,2216.29%98,886
Erie15,28752.93%13,54146.89%510.18%1,7466.04%28,879
Fairfield35,92660.63%23,30539.33%270.05%12,62121.30%59,258
Fayette6,28774.76%2,10224.99%210.25%4,18549.77%8,410
Franklin143,26333.64%281,50566.10%1,1340.27%-138,242-32.46%425,902
Fulton10,90667.18%5,29932.64%280.17%5,60734.54%16,233
Gallia6,99376.68%2,11623.20%110.12%4,87753.48%9,120
Geauga25,33259.24%17,34840.57%810.19%7,98418.67%42,761
Greene39,38559.51%26,75140.42%430.06%12,63419.09%66,179
Guernsey8,67871.18%3,50528.75%90.07%5,17342.43%12,192
Hamilton127,79242.25%174,51157.69%1830.06%-46,719-15.44%302,486
Hancock18,35767.77%8,71732.18%140.05%9,64035.59%27,088
Hardin6,52172.48%2,47127.46%50.06%4,05045.02%8,997
Harrison3,72171.78%1,45127.99%120.23%2,27043.79%5,184
Henry7,10268.94%3,19030.96%100.10%3,91237.98%10,302
Highland10,18577.68%2,92522.31%20.02%7,26055.37%13,112
Hocking6,35366.80%3,13933.00%190.20%3,21433.80%9,511
Holmes7,05681.82%1,56418.14%40.05%5,49263.68%8,624
Huron12,39867.24%5,99832.53%420.23%6,40034.71%18,438
Jackson6,59974.17%2,28525.68%130.15%4,31448.49%8,897
Jefferson14,97065.32%7,91434.53%340.15%7,05630.79%22,918
Knox16,10469.70%6,96930.16%310.13%9,13539.54%23,104
Lake50,89054.02%43,16645.82%1580.17%7,7248.20%94,214
Lawrence12,69772.51%4,79327.37%210.12%7,90445.14%17,511
Licking41,56662.51%24,77437.26%1540.23%16,79225.25%66,494
Logan12,55176.15%3,89823.65%320.19%8,65352.50%16,481
Lorain54,48848.70%57,19151.11%2090.19%-2,703-2.41%111,888
Lucas53,00940.09%78,72759.54%4800.36%-25,718-19.45%132,216
Madison9,76369.01%4,35030.75%350.25%5,41338.26%14,148
Mahoning44,39751.64%41,42148.18%1510.18%2,9763.46%85,969
Marion12,76066.65%6,34233.12%440.23%6,41833.53%19,146
Medina45,96058.86%31,97940.95%1450.19%13,98117.91%78,084
Meigs5,58974.84%1,87525.11%40.05%3,71449.73%7,468
Mercer14,39080.84%3,38919.04%210.12%11,00161.80%17,800
Miami30,11471.35%11,99328.42%990.23%18,12142.93%42,206
Monroe3,47971.48%1,37828.31%100.21%2,10143.17%4,867
Montgomery91,38249.04%94,51250.72%4600.25%-3,130-1.68%186,354
Morgan3,49472.52%1,31727.33%70.15%2,17745.19%4,818
Morrow9,98575.04%3,30324.82%180.14%6,68250.22%13,306
Muskingum18,66468.28%8,63831.60%340.12%10,02636.68%27,336
Noble3,51976.30%1,08323.48%100.22%2,43652.82%4,612
Ottawa10,65357.80%7,75042.05%270.15%2,90315.75%18,430
Paulding4,87375.31%1,58724.52%110.17%3,28650.79%6,471
Perry8,55771.70%3,34228.00%360.30%5,21543.70%11,935
Pickaway13,85970.72%5,69629.07%410.21%8,16341.65%19,596
Pike5,48870.21%2,32729.77%20.03%3,16140.44%7,817
Portage32,27453.29%28,17546.52%1140.19%4,0996.77%60,563
Preble12,15677.22%3,53322.44%540.34%8,62354.78%15,743
Putnam12,33282.09%2,66717.75%240.16%9,66564.34%15,023
Richland28,81269.04%12,90430.92%160.04%15,90838.12%41,732
Ross14,72865.06%7,85834.71%520.23%6,87030.35%22,638
Sandusky13,07661.27%8,17738.31%900.42%4,89922.96%21,343
Scioto14,65669.56%6,41130.43%40.02%8,24539.13%21,071
Seneca11,61864.58%6,32235.14%510.28%5,29629.44%17,991
Shelby14,51280.32%3,50919.42%470.26%11,00360.90%18,068
Stark77,28757.87%56,21542.09%440.03%21,07215.78%133,546
Summit86,72443.31%113,11256.49%4150.21%-26,388-13.18%200,251
Trumbull39,08253.46%33,89046.36%1320.18%5,1927.10%73,104
Tuscarawas20,07266.01%10,26733.77%670.22%9,80532.24%30,406
Union16,32064.16%9,07535.67%430.17%7,24528.49%25,438
Van Wert7,95978.49%2,17621.46%50.05%5,78357.03%10,140
Vinton2,98674.28%1,02825.57%60.15%1,95848.71%4,020
Warren65,37064.38%35,97035.43%1960.19%29,40028.95%101,536
Washington15,81269.50%6,93830.50%10.00%8,87439.00%22,751
Wayne25,59966.58%12,83233.37%190.05%12,76733.21%38,450
Williams8,93569.57%3,90330.39%50.04%5,03239.18%12,843
Wood24,85451.62%23,26948.33%250.05%1,5853.29%48,148
Wyandot5,81171.93%2,25527.91%130.16%3,55644.02%8,079
Totals2,192,31252.97%1,939,75146.86%7,0710.17%252,5616.11%4,139,134
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Vance won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[199]

DistrictVanceRyanRepresentative
1st46%54%Steve Chabot (117th Congress)
Greg Landsman (118th Congress)
2nd70%30%Brad Wenstrup
3rd28%72%Joyce Beatty
4th66%34%Jim Jordan
5th62%38%Bob Latta
6th58%42%Bill Johnson
7th52%48%Bob Gibbs / Anthony Gonzalez (117th Congress)
Max Miller (118th Congress)
8th62%38%Warren Davidson
9th49.8%50.2%Marcy Kaptur
10th51%49%Mike Turner
11th21%79%Shontel Brown
12th64%36%Troy Balderson
13th47%53%Tim Ryan (117th Congress)
Emilia Sykes (118th Congress)
14th55%45%David Joyce
15th52%48%Mike Carey

Voter demographics

According to exit polls by the National Election Pool, Vance won the election (53% to 47%), winning majority of white voters (59% to 40%), while Ryan received majorities of the Black vote (86% to 13%) and, to smaller extent, the Latino vote (59% to 41%).[200]

National election pool
Demographic subgroupRyanVanceNo
answer		% of
voters
Gender
Men4158152
Women5347N/A48
Age
18–24 years old5941N/A4
25–29 years old594016
30–39 years old5445112
40–49 years old4753116
50–64 years old4258N/A31
65 and older4455131
Race
White4059183
Black8613112
Latino5941N/A2
Race by gender
White men3564144
White women4653139
Black men831526
Black women8811N/A6
Education
High school or less3664N/A17
Some college education4653125
Associate degree4455115
Bachelor's degree4951N/A25
Advanced degree5743N/A17
Party ID
Democrats973N/A30
Republicans892N/A41
Independents5049129
Ideology
Liberals954120
Moderates5643142
Conservatives1189N/A38
Marital status
Married4753N/A64
Unmarried5445136
Gender by marital status
Married men3862N/A31
Married women5545N/A33
Unmarried men4553218
Unmarried women6337N/A17
Union household
Yes5643121
No4455179
First-time midterm election voter
Yes4852N/A9
No4753N/A91
Most important issue facing the country
Crime4159N/A8
Inflation2575N/A35
Gun policy5443316
Immigration1288N/A9
Abortion8119N/A26
Area type
Urban5842N/A33
Suburban4158151
Rural4257116
Region
Cleveland Area6831112
North4455120
West3565N/A16
Columbus Area6040N/A19
Cincinnati/Dayton Area4158120
Ohio Valley3565N/A13
Source: CBS News[201]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Patel and Pukita with 2%
  4. ^ Pukita with 2%; Graham and Patel with 1%
  5. ^ Patel and Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  6. ^ Pukita with 2%, Patel with 1%
  7. ^ Patel with 2%, Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  8. ^ Graham with 3%; Patel with 1%; Pukita with 0%
  9. ^ Someone else with 9%, Pukita with 1%
  10. ^ Tinsley with 5%
  11. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ^ "All others" with 3%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  17. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  18. ^ "Not going to vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. ^ "Other" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k This poll was sponsored by Protect Ohio Values PAC, which supports Vance
  2. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by Mandel's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h This poll was sponsored by Timken's campaign
  4. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Gibbons's campaign
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  6. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which endorsed Mandel
  7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  8. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Amy Acton
  9. ^ This poll was sponsored by American Greatness
  10. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Vance
  11. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign
  12. ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  13. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Innovation Ohio

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Official campaign websites
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Ohio

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