The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican author J. D. Vance and Democratic representative Tim Ryan will seek to succeed incumbent Republican senator Rob Portman, who is not seeking re-election after two terms.[1]

Primary elections took place on May 3. Ryan won the Democratic nomination in a field of three candidates with 70% of the vote. Vance, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump, won the Republican nomination in a field of seven candidates with 32% of the vote.

Republican primary

As a result of Portman’s retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. Former State Treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads.[2] At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel’s private sector experience. The debate moderator interfered after it was feared the two candidates would come to blows.[3] On April 9, Gibbons said that middle class Americans don’t pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting, and on April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator J. D. Vance, who had criticized him in the past.[4][5]

Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump’s support surged to become the race’s frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump’s claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time.[6] Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump’s influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020.[7] The primary was also the most expensive in the state’s history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.[8]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • John Berman, electronic hardware design, test engineer and candidate for U.S. Senate (Minnesota and Kansas) in 2020[17]
  • Bernie Moreno, businessman[18][19][20]

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Dolan
U.S. Governors
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Mike Gibbons
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
Individuals
Organizations
Josh Mandel
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Jane Timken
Executive branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
J. D. Vance
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Bernie Moreno (withdrawn and endorsed J.D. Vance)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Matt
Dolan
Mike
Gibbons
Josh
Mandel
Jane
Timken
J. D.
Vance
Other
[a]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsApril 28 – May 1, 2022May 2, 202221.5%15.0%22.5%7.0%26.0%8.0%Vance +3.5
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Matt
Dolan
Mike
Gibbons
Josh
Mandel
Bernie
Moreno
Jane
Timken
Mike
Turner
J. D.
Vance
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)April 29 – May 1, 20221,081 (LV)± 3.0%22%13%21%6%26%4%[c]9%
Emerson CollegeApril 28–29, 2022885 (LV)± 3.2%18%14%22%7%24%4%[d]11%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]April 25–26, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%12%12%19%8%31%0%17%
Blueprint Polling (D)April 21–24, 2022634 (LV)± 3.9%18%13%12%7%17%33%
Fox NewsApril 20–24, 2022906 (LV)± 3.0%11%13%18%6%23%2%[e]25%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]April 18–19, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%9%13%18%11%25%<1%23%
The Trafalgar Group (R)April 13–14, 20221,078 (LV)± 3.0%12%14%28%8%23%3%[f]13%
Remington Research Group (R)[B]April 11–12, 2022884 (LV)± 3.3%15%17%23%12%10%3%20%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]April 3–4, 20222,500 (LV)± 2.0%13%20%16%15%10%26%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]March 30–31, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%9%18%18%9%18%29%
University of AkronFebruary 17 – March 15, 2022– (LV)5%21%22%6%10%4%34%
Fox NewsMarch 2–6, 2022918 (LV)± 3.0%7%22%20%9%11%3%[g]24%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 25–26, 2022410 (LV)± 4.8%6%22%15%6%8%4%[h]39%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]February 23–24, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%8%18%14%12%14%34%
Cygnal (R)[D]February 8–10, 2022609 (LV)± 4.0%6%23%11%8%9%44%
The Trafalgar Group (R)February 8–10, 20221,085 (LV)± 3.0%10%16%21%10%14%3%25%
co/efficient (R)February 6–8, 2022613 (LV)± 4.0%7%20%18%6%5%10%[i]34%
February 3, 2022Moreno withdraws from the race
WPA Intelligence (R)[B]January 30 – February 1, 2022514 (LV)± 4.4%5%17%28%6%9%13%22%
Cygnal (R)[D]January 28–30, 2022929 (LV)± 3.2%3%16%13%6%8%10%45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]January 18–20, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%3%14%15%11%13%9%1%34%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[E]January 11–13, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%3%10%20%10%18%10%24%
WPA Intelligence (R)[F]January 5–6, 2022513 (LV)± 4.4%4%14%26%7%15%10%8%16%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]January 3, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.1%4%14%18%9%16%8%31%
The Trafalgar Group (R)December 12–15, 20211,053 (LV)± 3.0%5%12%21%2%10%15%34%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]November 29, 20211,000 (LV)± 3.1%4%13%21%3%17%10%32%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]November 21–23, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%7%18%2%10%6%10%45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]October 17–18, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%3%6%19%1%4%7%16%43%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]September 2021– (LV)6%12%22%3%11%9%37%
WPA Intelligence (R)[B]September 20–23, 2021510 (LV)± 4.3%3%8%37%1%6%13%6%26%
Remington Research Group (R)[B]September 6–7, 2021980 (LV)± 3.0%2%5%34%2%11%16%30%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]August 17–19, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%2%4%19%1%5%5%13%51%
WPA Intelligence (R)[F]July 27–29, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%3%3%40%1%8%12%13%20%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]July 20–22, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%1%2%21%2%7%7%12%48%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]June 15–17, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%2%2%22%1%8%6%4%55%
Remington Research Group (R)[B]June 1–3, 20211,040 (LV)± 3.0%2%5%35%2%16%6%34%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]May 26, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%7%24%1%19%8%4%35%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]April 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%1%23%1%14%7%4%37%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A]April 20–22, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%2%25%2%8%7%6%51%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]March 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%28%11%7%2%37%
Moore Information Group (R)[C]February 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%2%20%5%8%50%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Mike
Gibbons
Josh
Mandel
Bernie
Moreno
Steve
Stivers
Jane
Timken
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[B]June 1–3, 20211,040 (LV)± 3.0%45%22%33%
WPA Intelligence (R)[G]February 1–3, 2021509 (LV)± 4.4%3%38%2%11%6%39%

Results

Results by county:

  Vance
  •   20–30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  Mandel
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  Dolan
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
Republican primary results[20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican J. D. Vance 344,736 32.2
RepublicanJosh Mandel255,85423.9
RepublicanMatt Dolan249,23923.3
RepublicanMike Gibbons124,65311.7
RepublicanJane Timken62,7795.9
RepublicanMark Pukita22,6922.1
RepublicanNeil Patel9,8730.9
Total votes1,069,826 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Former CFPB senior advisor Morgan Harper from Columbus

Disqualified

  • Demar Sheffey, treasurer of the Cuyahoga Soil and Water Conservation District[97][20]
  • Rick Taylor[98][20]
  • LaShondra Tinsley, former case manager for Franklin County Jobs and Family Services[20][11]

Declined

Endorsements

Tim Ryan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Morgan
Harper
Traci
Johnson
Tim
Ryan
OtherUndecided
University of AkronFebruary 17 – March 15, 2022– (LV)18%43%4%37%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 25–26, 2022313 (LV)± 5.5%4%9%31%5%[j]51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Amy
Acton
Tim
Ryan
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 15–16, 2021787 (LV)± 3.5%37%32%31%

Results

Results by county:

Ryan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60-70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tim Ryan 359,941 69.6
DemocraticMorgan Harper92,34717.8
DemocraticTraci Johnson65,20912.6
Total votes517,497 100.0

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[142]Lean RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections[143]Likely RAugust 25, 2022
Sabato’s Crystal Ball[144]Lean RAugust 24, 2022
Politico[145]Lean RSeptember 5, 2022
RCP[146]TossupAugust 22, 2022
Fox News[147]Likely RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ[148]Lean RJuly 22, 2022
538[149]Lean RSeptember 1, 2022

Endorsements

J. D. Vance (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Tim Ryan (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
J. D.
Vance (R)
Tim
Ryan (D)
Undecided
[k]
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsMay 22 – August 19, 2022August 22, 202245.7%42.0%12.3%Vance +3.7
FiveThirtyEightAugust 24, 2021 – September 7, 2022September 7, 202243.6%45.5%10.9%Ryan +1.9
Average44.6%43.8%11.6%Vance +0.8
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
J. D.
Vance (R)
Tim
Ryan (D)
OtherUndecided
Impact Research (D)[I]August 17–23, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 16–19, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%6%
Emerson CollegeAugust 15–16, 2022925 (LV)± 3.2%45%42%4%10%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J]August 1–3, 20221,180 (A)± 2.9%32%42%26%
974 (RV)± 3.1%33%44%23%
516 (LV)± 4.3%38%49%12%
Impact Research (D)[I]July 21–28, 2022800 (LV)± 3.5%45%48%7%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[K]July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%38%44%3%15%
Grow Progress (D)[L]July 5–10, 20222,032 (RV)± 3.0%41%46%13%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J]July 1–3, 20221,199 (A)± 2.8%36%41%23%
989 (RV)± 3.1%37%44%20%
528 (LV)± 4.3%43%46%11%
Impact Research (D)[I]June 27–30, 2022816 (LV)± 3.4%46%48%6%
Grow Progress (D)[L]May 30 – June 3, 20222,018 (RV)± 3.0%41%44%15%
Suffolk UniversityMay 22–24, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%39%2%17%
Momentive (D)[J]May 13, 20221,174 (A)± 2.9%37%37%25%
989 (RV)± 3.1%40%39%21%
528 (LV)± 4.3%48%43%9%
Grow Progress (D)[L]April 25–29, 20222,014 (RV)± 2.5%41%43%15%
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%33%36%3%24%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%36%37%3%23%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%39%37%24%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Josh
Mandel (R)
Amy
Acton (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%41%42%17%
Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Josh
Mandel (R)
Tim
Ryan (D)
OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%38%36%4%18%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%41%37%4%17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%42%38%20%
Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jane
Timken (R)
Amy
Acton (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%40%40%20%
Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jane
Timken (R)
Tim
Ryan (D)
OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton StrategiesAugust 20–24, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%33%36%4%23%
1,160 (LV)± 2.9%36%38%4%22%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%41%38%21%
J. D. Vance vs. Amy Acton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
J.D.
Vance (R)
Amy
Acton (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H]March 18–19, 2021700 (V)± 3.7%38%40%22%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanJ. D. Vance
DemocraticTim Ryan
IndependentEric Meiring
IndependentSam Ronan
Total votes

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Patel and Pukita with 2%
  4. ^ Pukita with 2%; Graham and Patel with 1%
  5. ^ Patel and Pukita with 1%, “Other” (volunteered response) with <1%
  6. ^ Pukita with 2%, Patel with 1%
  7. ^ Patel with 2%, Pukita with 1%, “Other” (volunteered response) with <1%
  8. ^ Graham with 3%; Patel with 1%; Pukita with 0%
  9. ^ Someone else with 9%, Pukita with 1%
  10. ^ Tinsley with 5%
  11. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k This poll was sponsored by Protect Ohio Values PAC, which supports Vance
  2. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by Mandel’s campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h This poll was sponsored by Timken’s campaign
  4. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Gibbons’s campaign
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by Moreno’s campaign
  6. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which endorsed Mandel
  7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  8. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Amy Acton
  9. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Ryan’s campaign
  10. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Vance
  11. ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  12. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Innovation Ohio

References

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  3. ^ Allison, Natalie (May 4, 2022). “Farewell to the dumbest Senate primary ever”. Politico. Retrieved May 5, 2022.
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  6. ^ Allison, Natalie. “Republican who refuses to bend the knee to Trump surges in Ohio Senate race”. POLITICO.
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  171. ^ UAW Endorsements

External links

Official campaign websites